“Investire in Italia. Ma come? Previsioni sugli investimenti in Italia 2025.” by Marco Daviddi, Mario Rocco, and Emilio Rossi, created with the contribution of EY and Oxford Economics, provides a comprehensive overview of Italy’s economic, financial, and market dynamics. It highlights potential growth trajectories and the strategic choices that managers, entrepreneurs, and the curious might consider soon, focusing on macroeconomic trends, the evolution of M&A, the importance of innovation, new consumption models, and the energy transition.
Economic Dynamics 2024 and the Foundations for Investments in Italy in 2025
The latest data compiled by EY and Oxford Economics depicts an Italy that closed 2024 with growth below 1%, driven by consumption, thanks to a healthy labor market and early signs of wage increases. The document underscores how this rise in consumption has partially offset the downturn in private investments, which have fallen due to a widespread climate of uncertainty. Meanwhile, public investments have recorded a +20% increase, propelled by the implementation of the PNRR (Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza), providing a certain level of support to growth.
The data also shows that the Italian mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market has been vibrant: for 2024, approximately 1,300 operations are estimated, up 7% compared to 2023, with an investment volume ranging between 60 and 65 billion euros. Nonetheless, these figures remain below the peaks reached in the post-pandemic period. Financial investors—especially Private Equity funds—played a key role, primarily in terms of the number of deals (+20%), despite a general contraction in so-called megadeals, which saw a 25% drop in total invested volumes. The analysis also notes that in 75% of cases, Italian M&A activity is motivated by sector or supply-chain consolidation needs, deemed fundamental levers for boosting efficiency and competitiveness.
At the same time, EY’s Outlook reflects a certain optimism among Italian CEOs. Indeed, 62% of respondents state they are optimistic about the country’s situation, while 72% foresee revenue and profit growth for their organizations. This sentiment is based on a labor market that remains dynamic, as confirmed by the high number of people employed (over 24 million in October 2024) and a declining unemployment rate. One of the decisive factors in maintaining this moderately positive trend is the prudent management of monetary policy by the ECB, which is progressively easing rates, with a projected reduction of another 75 basis points in 2025. This move should support lending and make capital more accessible for businesses, though the document advises caution, since the positive effects of lower rates may only materialize in the second half of 2025.
A relevant factor involves geopolitical tensions that, on one hand, continue to exert pressure on energy costs and foreign trade, and on the other, prompt Italian companies to reorganize their reference markets, rethink supply chains, and redesign operational models, also compelled by the need to integrate advanced technologies like artificial intelligence. Confidence in the business landscape is further confirmed by the volume of foreign operations carried out by Italian companies (an estimated 270 by the end of 2024, with 15 billion euros invested), signaling a willingness to respond to emerging challenges with forward-looking and internationalized strategic choices. The conclusion drawn from this initial snapshot is that 2024 lays mixed groundwork for 2025, featuring signs of optimism and structural uncertainties regarding the recovery of private investments.
Growth in 2025: Consumption, Investments in Italy, and External Opportunities
The document shines a spotlight on 2025, projecting GDP growth at 0.8%. Though not particularly robust, this figure cements the moderately positive trajectory initially seen in 2024. The steady performance of consumption, expected to rise by 0.8%, will act as a stabilizing factor, supported by real wage growth and still relatively low inflation rates (around 2.0%, in line with the ECB’s target). However, forecasts point to a contraction in total investments of about 1.2%, partly attributable to a slowdown in construction, especially following the end of support measures. While construction and housing investments are expected to show a double-digit decline (-10.9% estimated for private housing), a rebound is projected for machinery (+5.9%) and intangible assets (+1.6%), connected to the initial interest rate cuts and a modest improvement in global confidence.
Regarding external demand, the drop in imports seen in 2024 is gradually reversed, and 2025 is expected to bring a significant increase in imports, driven both by the reactivation of certain production sectors and by higher consumption. Exports may benefit from a global recovery, albeit with lingering uncertainties in historically key markets for Made in Italy, such as Germany and the United States—the latter maintaining relatively strong forecasts (2.8% for 2024 and 2.4% for 2025, according to OECD estimates).
Consequently, Italy’s linchpin in 2025 will be its ability to capitalize on domestic consumption, stimulate private investments, support innovation plans, and seize suitable opportunities in foreign markets by leveraging appropriate financial tools and farsighted industrial policies.
Innovation and AI: Opportunities for Investments in Italy in 2025
A central theme highlighted by the testimonies in the report is the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced digital technologies on Italian corporate operating models. The text cites, for example, Microsoft Italia’s experience: through the AI L.A.B. (Learn, Adopt, Benefit) program, the company intends to promote the responsible adoption of generative AI, aiming to boost productivity and address the skills gap that still hampers the full realization of national potential. It is noted that 100% of Italian companies have already tested or declared they will soon test AI, recognizing its potential to simplify data management, enhance customer relationships, and introduce more advanced forms of automation.
The document also presents an analysis by United Ventures, a venture capital firm led by Massimiliano Magrini. It stresses how crucial it is for small and medium-sized enterprises to have access to risk capital for investments in strategic technologies. In a country where SMEs form the backbone of production, the availability of private equity and venture capital tools is key to accelerating innovation, overcoming limitations linked to size, and competing in increasingly technology-driven markets. Alongside financial support, specialized skills, training programs, and collaborative relationships with universities and research centers are also essential.
Within this framework, generative AI is depicted as a decisive factor for enhancing productivity and services, particularly in a demographic context where Italy could lose around 3.7 million workers by 2040. If properly utilized and accompanied by a training plan, AI solutions could compensate at least partly for the shrinking workforce, creating new growth opportunities and providing support mechanisms for process management. The document also underscores the importance of cybersecurity, given that massive digitalization increases the risk of intrusions and data theft. At the same time, environmental implications must be considered when adopting technological infrastructures, focusing on solutions that reduce energy consumption.
For those wishing to invest in Italy, the primary challenge is to balance digitalization needs with the ability to redefine business models. This requires leveraging artificial intelligence not merely as a tool for automating tasks, but as a strategic component for devising new operating schemes, reshaping organizational structures, introducing original services, and fostering partnerships with other companies.
In short, innovation is no longer optional; it is at the core of the country’s future growth prospects. Nevertheless, this demands simplified access to capital, the promotion of suitable professional competencies, and a cultural shift toward the widespread adoption of digital solutions.
International Scenarios 2025: Impacts on Investments in Italy
As 2025 approaches, the report emphasizes fluctuations in the international environment and how they may influence Italian enterprises. Globally, growth of 3.1% is predicted for 2024, with a gradual slowdown below 3% by the end of the decade—partly due to reduced globalization momentum, high private and public debt, and lower birth rates in many developed countries. The United States remains a vital pillar for the global economy, fueled by expansionary policies, although potential side effects—such as higher public debt and a possible resurgence of inflation—should not be underestimated. In 2025, the U.S. could indeed outperform European countries, buoyed by an industry investing in technology (including artificial intelligence) and in basic manufacturing sectors.
China, for its part, is experiencing a gradual slowdown in growth, from around 6% down to about 4% on average per year, driven by a cooling real-estate market and domestic policies aimed at stimulating household consumption, along with protectionist measures in some Western nations. For the Eurozone, the scenario is particularly complex, shaped by structural constraints such as an aging population and productivity levels that are below expectations. Adding to this are high public debt in some countries—Italy and France among them—and measures related to the ecological transition. While these measures aim to foster a sustainable economy, they also impose considerable burdens on the industrial system.
Germany, which shows zero growth in 2024 and a modest +0.7% in 2025, is central to Italy’s economic performance, serving as a major export destination in key industries such as automotive. A prolonged German downturn could affect sales for many Italian companies and disrupt supply chains. Hence, Europe continues to struggle in finding unified momentum. In the face of this geopolitical uncertainty and commercial risks, Italian businesses are exploring new destinations for their investments and adopting a more global mindset, looking to regions like the Balkans, Africa, and Latin America. This approach aligns with recommendations from institutions like Simest (part of Cassa Depositi e Prestiti), which promoted 9 billion euros of investments in 2024 to support the Made in Italy brand.
Key Sectors in 2025: Energy, Consumption, and Strategies for Investing in Italy
A defining element for 2025 concerns the evolution of domestic consumption, revealing increasingly polarized models. On one hand, there are consumers who gravitate toward low-cost products due to economic uncertainties; on the other, there is a consumer base focused on quality, with a preference for specific products (such as organic or high-protein items). Mauro Lusetti, President of Conad, highlights that sustainability is becoming increasingly pivotal. Conad, a leading operator in mass retailing, has surpassed 35% of its revenues with private label products, investing significantly in packaging, streamlining its logistics chain, and managing assets carefully. This dual emphasis on pricing and added value illustrates how demand is evolving and how businesses of all sizes must position themselves to meet the needs of distinctly different consumer segments.
A second key area is energy transition. Remarks from Nicola Monti (CEO of Edison, a historic Italian energy company) emphasize how in 2025, the cost sustainability of energy—both for industry and households—will be paramount. Hybrid energy systems will emerge, combining growing shares of renewables with programmable solutions such as gas or small-scale third-generation nuclear (SMR) to balance the grid and maintain stable prices. Medium- to long-term supply mechanisms, such as PPAs (Power Purchase Agreements), are seen as a strategic option to decouple energy prices from daily market fluctuations, providing greater predictability for B2B customers.
Finally, the document stresses the need for joint efforts among all stakeholders—companies, institutions, and citizens—to develop value-added initiatives in local communities, with a focus on green and digital skill development. Without adequate skills, the technological transition risks stalling. Systemic cooperation between the public and private sectors is also deemed essential for supporting the international growth of small and medium-sized enterprises, a critical aspect emphasized by Simest, which points to the importance of financial backing and a network of partnerships to help SMEs become more robust and tackle emerging markets. In general, the push to evolve stems from shifting consumer behavior and the opportunities offered by clean energy, while coordinated efforts between businesses and government emerge as a crucial factor for the nation’s success.
CONCLUSIONS
The document’s analysis portrays an Italy in flux, balanced between progressive forces and structural hurdles: while 2024 displayed resilience driven by consumption and a stable labor market, critical challenges remain for 2025, starting with the need to galvanize private investment and make the most of the PNRR. In a more uncertain international landscape—worsened by Germany’s difficulties, strong U.S. competition, and a slowdown in China—Italian businesses must focus on innovation, AI, and competencies that the country still lacks, working to optimize energy costs and consumption while expanding intelligently into new markets.
The outlook suggests that M&A activity, strategic cooperation, and the inflow of risk capital could serve as levers for growth, particularly if backed by favorable legislation and an effective easing of European monetary policy. However, outcomes will hinge on the capacity to seize and enhance synergies among industry, institutions, and local territories, as well as on how adeptly businesses and government respond to geopolitical uncertainties. Compared to other economies that are already adopting similar technological and industrial solutions, Italy retains certain advantages (creativity, quality, a strong manufacturing tradition) but needs a broad-based vision to evolve coherently. For executives and entrepreneurs, the future will involve making decisions that prioritize both economic and energy sustainability, keeping a close eye on integrating new digital tools and exploring internationalization pathways that offer alternative growth prospects. While the road ahead is challenging, having a clear strategic direction can ensure competitiveness among leading advanced economies by leveraging Italy’s skill set, knowledge, and ability to innovate in key Made in Italy sectors.
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